Frequently Asked Questions

Clairvoyant is an autonomous prediction-market trading platform. Three AI agents — Claude, Gemini, and Grok — independently analyze open markets on Polymarket, reach consensus on mispricings, and execute trades on your behalf using the Kelly Criterion for position sizing. You set the parameters; the engine runs continuously.

It depends on your plan. The Free and Starter plans require you to bring your own API keys for Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google), and/or Grok (xAI). The Managed plans (PAYG, Basic, Pro) use platform-owned keys — you pay for the service and we handle the AI infrastructure. Either way, you must connect your own Polymarket account to execute trades.

Every new account gets 3 complimentary analysis runs that use our platform AI keys — no API keys required from you. Each run scans active Polymarket markets, identifies mispricings via all three agents, and surfaces trade recommendations. After the 3 trials, you can either add your own API keys (Free plan, 1 run/day at no cost) or subscribe to a managed plan.

Dry-run mode lets you simulate the full trading cycle without executing real trades or risking capital. The agents analyze real markets and size positions as they normally would, but all trades are paper-traded. Your dry-run performance is tracked separately from live trading so you can evaluate the engine's output before committing real funds. New users get 3 dry-run cycles (server-enforced).

Yes. Polymarket is the on-chain prediction market where trades are actually executed. You need to connect your Polymarket wallet (private key) via the Settings page. Clairvoyant uses the Polymarket CLOB API to place orders on your behalf — we never custody your funds.

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market running on Polygon (Ethereum L2). Markets resolve to YES (100¢) or NO (0¢) based on real-world outcomes. You buy YES or NO shares at current market prices; if your side resolves correctly you receive $1 per share. Clairvoyant identifies markets where the current price appears mispriced relative to the true probability.

We accept USDC (on-chain) via NOWPayments. This means payments are made in cryptocurrency — specifically USDC on Solana or compatible networks. There is no credit card option. This is intentional: it keeps the platform accessible globally without payment processor restrictions.

No. Clairvoyant does not auto-charge you. Each subscription period (31 days) must be renewed manually by making a new payment. You will retain access until your current period expires, at which point the platform reverts to Free tier behavior. There are no surprise charges.

Free and Starter plans require you to supply your own API keys for Claude, Gemini, and Grok. The AI compute costs come out of your own API billing. Managed plans (PAYG, Basic, Pro) use platform-owned keys — you pay a subscription fee and we absorb the AI API costs. Managed plans are ideal if you don't want to manage multiple API keys or are new to the AI providers.

Run credits are single-use tokens that authorize one full analysis cycle (scan markets → agents analyze → opportunities identified → trades executed). PAYG users spend one credit per run. Managed Basic/Pro plans include a monthly pool of runs (9 or 25); credits purchased separately are used for overages. Credits never expire.

Crypto payments are irreversible by nature and we cannot issue refunds for payments already processed. If you have a genuine problem — a system outage prevented your runs from executing, for example — contact us and we will add credits to your account to compensate. We are a small team and we want to be fair.

The engine will continue running analyses and surfacing recommendations, but new trade entries are blocked until an existing position closes. You can purchase additional position slots as a monthly add-on, or upgrade your plan. A notification will appear when the cap is reached.

No. Prediction markets are adversarial — you are trading against other informed participants. The engine identifies statistical edges, not certainties. Individual trades will lose; the system is designed to be profitable in aggregate over time through disciplined sizing and position management. Past simulation performance does not guarantee future live results. Only invest capital you can afford to lose.

Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that sizes bets optimally given your estimated edge and the odds. Clairvoyant uses Quarter Kelly by default (25% of full Kelly), which is more conservative and protects against overconfident probability estimates. Position size is also hard-capped at 10% of portfolio per trade and 80% total exposure.

Edge is the difference between the consensus probability our agents assign to an outcome and the current market-implied probability. For example, if the market prices an event at 40% but our three agents consensus at 58%, the edge is +18 percentage points in favor of YES. The engine only enters positions where edge exceeds a minimum threshold.

Exits are triggered by: (1) stop-loss — if the position moves against you beyond a threshold, (2) take-profit — if the position reaches your profit target, (3) position re-evaluation — agents periodically re-assess open positions and can recommend EXIT if their view has changed, (4) market expiry approaching (T-24h and T-6h reviews are automatic). You can also exit manually at any time.

YES means you believe the event will happen; you buy YES shares. NO means you believe it will not; you buy NO shares. Current YES price and NO price always add to approximately $1.00 (minus market maker spread). An 80¢ YES price implies the market thinks there's an 80% chance of the event resolving YES.

The engine scans active Polymarket markets with sufficient liquidity (minimum $500) and 24h volume (minimum $1,000). It covers politics, sports, crypto, economics, and world events. Markets near resolution (above 95% or below 5%) are automatically filtered out as they are likely already decided.

The engine will detect this during its next monitoring cycle and automatically mark the position as closed. This reconciliation is based on your on-chain token balance — if the balance drops to zero, the trade is recorded as "externally closed" at the prevailing market price.

Disagreement is intentional and desirable. Claude, Gemini, and Grok have different training data, reasoning styles, and access to different real-time information. When they disagree, the consensus engine weights their views by their historical Brier scores in that market category. A unanimous high-confidence signal is stronger than a split one — both are surfaced, but with different confidence scores.

Your private key is encrypted with AES-256 using a master encryption key that never leaves our secure environment. It is stored encrypted in the database and decrypted only at trade execution time in memory. We never log keys or transmit them unencrypted. That said, you are trusting us with a key that controls your Polymarket wallet — only connect an address you use exclusively for this purpose, and do not store your entire trading capital there.

The private key you connect gives us signing authority to execute trades on Polymarket on your behalf. We can place and cancel orders on your connected address — this is necessary for autonomous trading to work. We cannot transfer funds to arbitrary addresses; all actions are limited to Polymarket's CLOB API endpoints.

Several things can prevent execution: insufficient USDC balance on your Polymarket address, a circuit breaker triggered by prior losses that day, the position cap being reached, the opportunity expiring before execution (market moved), or a Polymarket API error. Check the Activity log in the Autonomous tab for the specific skip reason.

The circuit breaker monitors your daily realized loss on live trades. If losses exceed a configurable threshold in a 24-hour window, the engine pauses new trade entries for the rest of that day. This prevents a bad run from cascading into larger losses. It does not affect dry-run trades.

The engine uses a cooldown system: markets analyzed in the last 6 hours are skipped to avoid re-evaluating the same set repeatedly. It starts with 30 markets and escalates (60 → 100 → 200 → full crawl) if no tradeable opportunities are found. If all recently-scanned markets are in cooldown, it force-refreshes the top 10 to ensure you always get fresh output.