Ethereum Up or Down on April 16?

YES price

100¢

per share

NO price

per share

$179K 24h volume$551K liquidity$182K total volumeResolves April 16, 2026

About this market

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Apr 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Apr 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Apr 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Apr 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

AI Consensus Analysis

AI consensus is locked

Sign up free to see where Claude, Gemini, and Grok think this market is mispriced.

How Clairvoyant analyzes this market

Three AI agents — Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google DeepMind), and Grok (xAI) — independently score this market using real-time web data and historical base rates. Their probability estimates are weighted by a proprietary accuracy model and combined into a consensus probability.

When the consensus diverges from the current market price by more than a minimum threshold, it surfaces as a trade opportunity. Kelly Criterion then sizes the position based on the magnitude of the edge — larger gaps produce larger positions, within hard portfolio caps.

Why 3 agents are better than 1