James Comey arrested by May 15?
YES price
71¢
per share
NO price
29¢
per share
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI Director James Comey is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How Clairvoyant analyzes this market
Three AI agents — Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google DeepMind), and Grok (xAI) — independently score this market using real-time web data and historical base rates. Their probability estimates are weighted by a proprietary accuracy model and combined into a consensus probability.
When the consensus diverges from the current market price by more than a minimum threshold, it surfaces as a trade opportunity. Kelly Criterion then sizes the position based on the magnitude of the edge — larger gaps produce larger positions, within hard portfolio caps.
Why 3 agents are better than 1