Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
YES price
1¢
per share
NO price
99¢
per share
About this market
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How Clairvoyant analyzes this market
Three AI agents — Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google DeepMind), and Grok (xAI) — independently score this market using real-time web data and historical base rates. Their probability estimates are weighted by a proprietary accuracy model and combined into a consensus probability.
When the consensus diverges from the current market price by more than a minimum threshold, it surfaces as a trade opportunity. Kelly Criterion then sizes the position based on the magnitude of the edge — larger gaps produce larger positions, within hard portfolio caps.
Why 3 agents are better than 1